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First and foremost, I love using lightning to move bitcoin. I remember back in the day in 2018 people were talking about only 1/3rd of bitcoin lightning transactions above 100 USD were able to succeed. Now everyone can use that amount every single day without issue.              

So I'm glad to see we can use bitcoin to buy groceries, pay for gas at the pump, etc. But my question now is, "What will it take to make lightning integration *the new and must-have standard*?" Is this something that will take another halving cycle to complete?
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U.S. legislators are debating whether to allow users to spend up to 50 dollars worth of Btc without incurring a capital gains tax. El Salvador has declared Bitcoin legal currency and does not tax its citizens on gains. In America, it's treated as a commodity instead of a currency so that they can bang us with capital gains taxes so i don't think it will take off in America due to that classification and those taxes plus the fact that there are plenty of other payment options available. I personally wouldn't want to spend any Bitcoin until everything is priced in Bitcoin so that I wouldn't have to sell it for USD. But in poor countries with limited payment rails or access to banking, the lightning network is a Godsend and should be adopted pretty quickly over the next ten years.
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Many people don't recognize the ongoing technical challenges associated with LN. The challenges are being solved gradually, but there are reasons for why it hasn't been widely adopted yet. One innovation I'm very excited about is the notion of LSPs, or Lightning Service Providers. Many of these protocols are still in the process of being defined. Once they are solidified, we'll see much better applications in place to take advantage of them. I'd give it a year or two.
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10-15 years is my guess.
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1 billion projected bitcoin users by 2030, so I’m going to say 2 halvings away for mass adoption.
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tonight is the night the ceiling can’t hold us
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